October 16, 2015
The House and Senate were in recess this week.
House Leadership Elections and Conference Rules
While Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) returned to his district this week to discuss with his family whether or not to run for House Speaker, several other potential candidates emerged. Rep. Bill Flores (R-TX) asked his Republican colleagues for their feedback on his potential pursuit of the position if Ryan opted to not run. Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT) and Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX) are also said to be considering a bid to replace current House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) if Ryan says no. Other declared candidates include Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) and Rep. Daniel Webster (R-FL). Ryan, who has already declined the job twice since Boehner’s retirement announcement, may prefer to remain as Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee where he can continue to pursue his personal dedication to fiscal issues.
And Republican leaders are formally asking GOP conference members if they should change the rules governing the House GOP conference. Conservatives in the House Freedom Caucus had requested an overhaul of the rules that would give rank-and-file members more say in selecting committee chairmen and seats on key committees. Critics of the Freedom Caucus may submit their own rule changes including one that would require GOP members to vote for the conference’s speaker candidate on the House floor. The conference will meet next Wednesday and members were told to submit their proposals by Tuesday night.
FY16 National Defense Authorization Act Conference Report
All indications are that President Obama will veto the conference report to the FY16 National Defense Authorization Act when it reaches his desk. While the House and Senate passed the conference report last week, the veto showdown will have to wait until next week. The bill still has to be enrolled before it can be sent to the President, and that won’t happen until after Congress returns from recess. The enrollment process includes printing the bill on parchment paper.
Debt Ceiling
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a report this week, “Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit,” in which they estimate that the U.S. Treasury Department will run out of cash “sometime in the first half of November” and that “earlier or later dates are possible, depending on the amount and timing of cash flows in the next several weeks.” This new date is earlier than the date CBO last projected at the end of August. The projected date in that analysis was mid-November-early December. And this week Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said that the U.S. would hit its borrowing limit on Nov. 3, two days earlier than he originally forecasted.
The debt limit (debt ceiling) is the maximum amount of debt that Treasury can issue. The amount is set by law and has been increased over the years in order to finance the government’s operations. In March of this year, the debt ceiling was reached, and the Secretary of the Treasury announced a “debt issuance suspension period.” During such a period, existing statutes allow the Treasury to take a number of “extraordinary measures” to borrow additional funds without breaching the debt ceiling.
CBO now estimates that these “extraordinary measures” will be exhausted by the first half of November. CBO revised its estimate of the timing primarily because the Treasury’s cash balance at the beginning of October was smaller than expected, the result of a larger-than-expected deficit and other variations in cash flows.
If Congress does not raise the debt ceiling before the extraordinary measures are exhausted, the government would be unable to fully pay its obligations. This would lead to delays of payments for government activities, a default on the government’s debt obligations, or both.
House Speaker John Boehner wants Congress to vote to lift the debt ceiling before he leaves office. Boehner is reportedly in talks with the Senate and the White House on a budget deal that will include a debt limit increase. If they can’t come to agreement on a budget deal, Boehner intends to move a standalone bill on the debt limit. But this move could be complicated by the standard he set in 2011 that any time Congress raises the debt ceiling, the increase should be accompanied by corresponding spending reductions.
CBO Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit Report:
https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/50888-FederalDebtLimit.pdf
Highway Reauthorization Bill Released in House
The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee released its six-year $325B highway reauthorization bill today ahead of an expected markup on Oct. 22. The current authorization expires at the end of the month (Oct. 29). The Senate passed a five-year bill before the August recess that included an EXIM Bank reauthorization provision.
The House bill does not include any new ways to pay for programs, but outlines some policy changes from the last reauthorization (MAP-21). The policy changes include consolidating and eliminating offices within the Department of Transportation, streamlining environmental review and permitting processes; and establishing a Nationally Significant Freight and Highway Projects Program.
Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Ranking Member Barbara Boxer (D-CA) sent a letter to House leaders this week saying she was “heartened” by the news of the markup and urged the committee to pass the bill without delay.
Surface Transportation Reauthorization and Reform Act of 2015:
http://transportation.house.gov/uploadedfiles/strra.pdf
Political Updates
Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert reached a plea deal on Thursday in a criminal case involving charges that he paid $3.5M to an unnamed associate in an attempt to cover up a wrongdoing from several years ago when he was a high school gym teacher in Illinois. Hastert entered a guilty plea that will likely include more than a year in prison for violating a federal banking law. The details of his sentence will be available when Hastert formally enters his guilty plea on Oct. 28.
Next Week
The House will take up HR 10, the SOAR Reauthorization Act; HR 692, the Default Prevention Act; and HR 1937, the National Strategic and Critical Minerals Production Act of 2015. The Senate will resume consideration of the motion to proceed to a “sanctuary cities” bill (S 2146) when they return next week. The Senate Intelligence Committee is also pushing for their cybersecurity legislation (S 754) to be considered next week.